Sunday, November 09, 2008

The Future of Business Development

Three important points about strategic vs tactical decision making: -

1. The Future vs the Past. In very much the same way that we cannot accurately predit the future it is important to realize that the past is disconnected in very much the same way. There is no way to step back into the past and be able to fully tap into the emotions and conflicting motivations that have lead to today. This is not to say that attempting to understand how one action triggered another is a complete waste of time. However it is appropriate to consider that the "lessons" of the past may not be particulalry useful for new challenges in the future.

2. Planning. From a business planning perspective understand that when an "expert" predicts the +/- range of swing in the DJIA for tomorrrow there is some high probability that he will be right. On the other hand anyone who provides a five year plan with fixed numerical outcomes is a complete gamble. From the perspective of business success there are often huge (lucky!) rewards when there is a balance between being able to manage day-to-day dynamic challenges while reserving some resources to actively prepare for low probability market changes and needs.

3. The Black Swan. This blog post is like a 30-sec summary of a really great book. If at all possible read a copy before the new global econmy starts in Jan.!

Amazon Link

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You would then likely enjoy "Predictably Irrational" by Dan Ariely, which basically shows how despite all reason even the most educated people make irrational choices - consistently.