Sunday, November 09, 2008

The Future of Business Development

Three important points about strategic vs tactical decision making: -

1. The Future vs the Past. In very much the same way that we cannot accurately predit the future it is important to realize that the past is disconnected in very much the same way. There is no way to step back into the past and be able to fully tap into the emotions and conflicting motivations that have lead to today. This is not to say that attempting to understand how one action triggered another is a complete waste of time. However it is appropriate to consider that the "lessons" of the past may not be particulalry useful for new challenges in the future.

2. Planning. From a business planning perspective understand that when an "expert" predicts the +/- range of swing in the DJIA for tomorrrow there is some high probability that he will be right. On the other hand anyone who provides a five year plan with fixed numerical outcomes is a complete gamble. From the perspective of business success there are often huge (lucky!) rewards when there is a balance between being able to manage day-to-day dynamic challenges while reserving some resources to actively prepare for low probability market changes and needs.

3. The Black Swan. This blog post is like a 30-sec summary of a really great book. If at all possible read a copy before the new global econmy starts in Jan.!

Amazon Link

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Pure Evil ... 666 ?

Seriously, there's a lot of positive things to be said about LinkedIn and I'm fairly picky about the connections I make but, would it be better to reduce my current list of contacts or shoot for 777... ???

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

USA Presidential Election mid-day Nov 5th

Since these online maps change all the time I thought you might get a kick out of this static version as a piece of history. The two outstanding states are Missouri and North Carolina (I've never been to NC ... Greenville is supposed to be a city of the future for the USA). It seems Obama (not that this counting means much for the overall result) has a tiny edge in NC while McCain has a similar marginal advantage in MO, the inland state. The visual image somewhat suggests that states physically connected to the outside world (via the Great Lakes or two oceans) crossed into Obama's suggestion to build a "Change" for the USA while those inland wish for a fixed model for the future. As I jokingly said to some folks I work with in Kansas about a month ago - looks like Colorado and New Mexico think they are connected to the outside world. One of them "explained" (by shouting)to me that CO and NM had been invaded by techno-geeks from the coasts!